[OpenRelief Outreach] Wargameing for Disaster Management Simulation

[Kevin Walsh]

Shane has contacted me with regards developing a Wargame to help
demonstrate the tech, you guys are providing, and to help people who are in
charge of such decisions, understand better the effects of various methods
of deployment and use.

It's a big challenge, there are so many variables, and Its hard to say what
exactly your modules will do or how they will perform under adverse
conditions, but I think I have a grasp on the key feature that will become
the core of the game mechanic: Information, or rather the lack of it. The
big issue during a disaster is the difficulty of forming a comprehensive
picture of what is going on, and therefore make good decisions about what
to do about it. The tech your developing seems to be aimed at improving the
information available to make these decisions, so the key feature of a game
meant to show case their use will be limiting the information that the
player has about whats really happening, and depending on what assets were
deployed and how they were utilised, the player gets more information back
and can therefore choose to react to the crisis.

Ideally I would like to produce a text based game computer game that runs a
detailed and multi layered simulation behind the scenes and then feeds
information to the Player via a Sahana Eden Interface so the player would
be in the position of a real crisis management professional.

How ever in the short term I'm working on a pen and paper role play
strategy game, for 2 players, utilising a real world map, pen's, pins or
counters, dice and a stack of debating cards.
Player 1 would act as the Disaster Relief Manager, and Player 2 would Act
as the Environment. The two Players would divide up the map into districts
and write down the features of each district using a guide int the game
book and their own knowledge of the area, then Player 2 would choose or
randomly determine the type of disaster while Player 1 was deploying the
assets available. Once ready Player 2 would add the effects of the disaster
to the back of each districts cards and then Player 2 would attempt to
assess the situation with what ever assets were in play Player 2 feeding
information as it was discovered. as time ticks by Player 2 would continue
to modify the situation to take into account ongoing problems caused by the
initial disaster while player 1 would attempt to provide Aid to the victims
and Re-establish infrastructure such as power, phone lines, water and
roads.

A key feature that I have yet to define is Metrics of success, so that one
run can be measured against another and the difference between the
Strategies can be clearly seen.

>From you guys I would like links to information on the details of disasters
and their effects, the survival rates for post disaster refugees under
different conditions etc, and also an assessments of the types of assets
that Aid Agencies already have as well as assets that you guys are making
or even just thinking of making.

The more I know the more I can Include.

Kevin Walsh
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